The Shift
In a world beset by overlapping crises - pandemics, climate emergencies, political upheavals, and rapid technological disruption - traditional risk management methods struggle to keep pace. Jamais Cascio, a noted futurist, suggests that our era is best understood as the “Age of Chaos,” a time when familiar tools falter amid cascading, nonlinear threats. To better navigate this volatility, Cascio has introduced the BANI framework - Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, and Incomprehensible - which captures the distinctive challenges of the 21st century. We are now living in a BANI world!
By redefining our understanding of complexity and building agile strategies that can adapt to unforeseen upheavals, we stand a better chance of not just surviving these trials but innovating in ways that foster antifragility and long-term success.
It’s been more than five years since Jamais Cascio initially formed his thesis on what would become a seminal paper titled “Facing the Age of Chaos.”
Since its publication, I’ve followed events and changes that have moved businesses beyond the realm of ‘problems’ and ‘complications’ into a persistent and layered state of ‘chaos.’ While complexities in politics, economics, and technology have been present for decades, what distinguishes the current era is how quickly and thoroughly these complexities converge to create cascading, systemic crises.
As we’ve experienced, a global pandemic can spark economic collapse, which then fuels social unrest; climate disasters feed into infrastructure breakdowns, which, in turn, destabilize global supply chains. This interconnectedness creates feedback loops that amplify risks in ways that are difficult - even impossible - to predict using traditional linear models.
From a risk management perspective, particularly one that aims to move beyond conservative, compliance-based frameworks, a need for adaptive capacity, agility, and forward-looking strategies is crucial.
Organizations, communities, and governments alike require a new lens - one that recognizes the limitations of purely quantitative risk assessments in a world defined by rapid, overlapping disruptions.
BANI: A Framework for this Age
Cascio has proposed the BANI framework. It stands for Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, and Incomprehensible. We have tested risk methodologies against this framework for the past five years. What follows is my view on where we go from here.
BANI is seen by many as the next phase of evolution from the older “VUCA” model (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous).
BANI offers a refined way to understand the emerging realities of the 21st century. Each component of BANI reflects a hallmark of the Age of Chaos:
Brittle – Systems and structures that appear stable may shatter unexpectedly under stress. Whether a global supply chain is collapsing due to a pandemic or a company is suffering from a swift cybersecurity breach, what was once thought secure can break abruptly.
Anxious – Constant uncertainty and instability create pervasive anxiety among people in all walks of life. Societies, organizations, and individuals may default to fear-based decision-making, exacerbating risks. In anxious conditions, the emotional state of stakeholders becomes a key factor in risk management strategies.
Nonlinear – Cause and effect no longer unfold in a neat sequence. A small trigger can catalyze disproportionately large outcomes, and these effects can reverberate across multiple domains (economic, social, political, environmental) in ways that defy simplistic predictions.
Incomprehensible – Certain phenomena resist clear explanation or modeling. Even advanced AI tools can struggle to capture the complexity and speed of cascading risks. Decision-makers, therefore, often find themselves grappling with limited clarity, highlighting the importance of intuitive judgment and collaboration in risk management.
How Cascio articulates BANI complements his broader message about the Age of Chaos by being rather ‘matter of fact’ about it. He acknowledges that “things are bad.” The BANI framework provides a practical vocabulary for diagnosing why institutions, individuals, and societies feel perpetually off-balance.
Systemic and Cascading Risks
Central to the current state, Cascio argues that disruptions no longer operate in a vacuum. A crisis in one domain - say, energy - can quickly infect others, creating second- and third-order crises that are nonlinear. This interplay illustrates the Nonlinear element of BANI, wherein a seemingly localized issue (like a major shipping route blockage) can generate substantial, unpredictable ripple effects across global markets.
For risk management, this means shifting from a single-hazard view - focusing on isolated risk events happening - to a broader perspective. Professionals in this space need to map out interdependencies between vulnerabilities and capabilities - exploring how disruptions in one area might magnify vulnerabilities elsewhere. The capacity to think systemically and to update those mental models in real time is essential. It also means that purely quantitative approaches can be inadequate if they do not capture emergent properties of a crisis.
From Resilience to Adaptive Capacity
For many years, “resilience” has been a primary buzzword in risk management. Resilience implies bouncing back to a previous baseline after experiencing a shock. However, the baseline itself may have been permanently altered. Extreme weather events, societal shifts, or technological disruptions can change the playing field so thoroughly that returning to “the way things were” is no longer possible - or even desirable.
Here, BANI’s Brittle dimension comes into play. Traditional systems may be deceptively stable on the surface, but they are prone to shattering under new pressures. To mitigate this brittleness, organizations must cultivate adaptive capacity or anti-fragility - the ability not just to withstand shocks but to evolve in response.
Adaptive capacity acknowledges that crises can present opportunities for transformation. By learning from disruptions and iterating strategic models, organizations become more agile and innovative rather than clinging to outdated norms.
Antifragility is the concept that some systems, rather than merely resisting damage and returning to a previous equilibrium, actually benefit and grow stronger from shocks. When structures or systems are brittle, an adaptive response is essential. Cultivating antifragility offers a way for organizations to not only withstand crises but emerge from them in better shape than before. Unlike resilience, which aims to bounce back, antifragility embraces disruption as a source of learning and innovation.
A key enabler of antifragility is flexibility. By building mechanisms that allow for quick pivots - such as modular infrastructures, decentralized decision-making, and open communication channels - organizations can respond to unpredictable events without collapsing or stagnating. Flexibility supports constant adaptation, letting companies harness the momentum of crises to improve processes, discover new market opportunities, and strengthen internal culture. In this way, flexibility does more than just buffer shocks: it transforms them into catalysts for growth.
Building Foresight and Scenario Planning
In a BANI world, Anxious conditions and people make it challenging for leaders and policymakers to maintain clarity and confidence. They may become paralyzed by the fear of making the “wrong” move. This is where I have found the crucial antidote to anxiety is robust foresight. Tools like scenario planning, horizon scanning, and futures thinking can help individuals and organizations conceptualize multiple potential outcomes without fixating on one predicted future.
Scenario Planning: By sketching out a range of plausible futures - best-case, worst-case, and multiple shades in between - teams can identify early warning indicators and craft contingency plans. This technique is particularly important in a Nonlinear world, where events can unfold rapidly and trigger surprising impacts.
Horizon Scanning: Vigilantly monitoring emerging signals - from technological innovations to subtle political shifts - provides real-time inputs for evolving strategic assumptions.
Risk managers who incorporate these approaches can alleviate anxiety by ensuring they are not wholly blindsided by developments. Although one cannot eliminate uncertainty, preparing for a suite of possibilities helps organizations pivot more effectively under pressure.
Human-Centric Solutions and Ethics
Unique to the BANI world is the human dimension. It shines a light on no matter how sophisticated models or technologies become, people ultimately make decisions. Emotions, biases, culture, and ethics all shape how communities respond to chaos. In a BANI context, Incomprehensible challenges may strain human cognition; data overload and conflicting narratives lead to confusion or denial. This makes transparent communication and ethical leadership indispensable.
Transparent Communication: Sharing what is known and what remains uncertain can stabilize anxious communities. Hiding vulnerabilities or glossing over risks only postpones the inevitable.
Inclusivity and Collaboration: Systemic crises affect people across racial, gender, and socioeconomic lines differently. Inclusive governance that amplifies diverse perspectives is more likely to foster equitable and effective resilience strategies.
Ethical Decision-Making: In times of great turmoil, short-term expediency can trump long-term values. Leaders face a risk of sacrificing ethics for quick wins, which can breed mistrust and further instability. The new approach emphasizes that ethical clarity becomes a compass that can guide decision-making even when the path ahead is blurred.
As a risk professional, we have factored in these human dimensions to design a framework that is empathetic and sustainable. By recognizing the real fears and psychological toll of overlapping crises, we provide strategies and training that resonate more deeply with clients and stakeholders.
Collaborative Networks and Collective Intelligence
A notable theme that has emerged over the past five years is the value placed on networks - distributed ecosystems in which information, resources, and expertise flow fluidly. In earlier paradigms, hierarchical institutions might have been sufficient for linear problems. Today, Nonlinear and Incomprehensible challenges demand a broader, more collective approach. When professionals, governments, and communities connect to share real-time insights, they reduce blind spots and can mobilize resources more effectively.
Risk management in this context is not just about preventing calamities within a single organization. It is about harnessing collective intelligence to spot emerging threats and innovate solutions. This is particularly relevant in times when large-scale crises (pandemics, climate emergencies, cybersecurity threats) transcend borders and bureaucratic silos. Cross-sector partnerships and decentralized networks can be more responsive and agile, allowing them to adapt quickly - a hallmark of antifragility and adaptability in a chaotic system.
Embracing Radical Innovation
Addressing systemic challenges often calls for significant departures from “business as usual.” Being in an age of chaos can catalyze innovation, spurring governments and industries to invest in long-overdue transformations: renewable energy infrastructures, revamped healthcare systems, new forms of global cooperation, and robust digital governance. Historically, major leaps in technology and policy have arisen in response to crises, and the current period is no exception.
When an environment is Brittle, attempts to preserve the status quo can actually magnify risks.
Instead, embracing the potential for breakthrough ideas may offer a path to stronger, more flexible and adaptive systems. For risk managers, it’s crucial to highlight the strategic upside of experimenting with new solutions - while also effectively communicating and managing the associated uncertainties. After all, any novel approach can fail. Yet in a chaotic era, failing to evolve can be an even greater risk.
Leadership in the Age of Chaos
Leadership must address Anxious conditions with courage and empathy. Leaders who engage in fear-mongering or deny the complexity of challenges can exacerbate uncertainties, leading to poor decisions and public distrust. Conversely, those who foster open dialogue, demonstrate accountability, and encourage collaborative problem-solving can create the psychological safety needed to weather repeated disruptions.
Ethical leadership also matters in the face of Incomprehensible experiences. While certain problems may defy total understanding, leaders who admit what they do not know - while being transparent about the basis for their decisions - often secure greater stakeholder buy-in than those who project false confidence. Honest humility, paired with consistent communication, strengthens relationships and makes adaptation more feasible.
Revolutionary Risk Management
As a risk management professional, writing a book and creating learning programs is my way to embrace new paradigms. Tame the Turmoil: Transform into an Organization Ready for Anything – addresses how to tame what the age of chaos has produced. It reinforces the imperative for agile, integrated strategies and the changes it will confront. Traditional risk approaches fall far short by a long shot.
Key Takeaways for Modern Risk Management:
Systemic Viewpoint: Shift from siloed risk assessments to holistic analyses of interdependencies and feedback loops.
Adaptive Frameworks: Move beyond resilience to cultivate the ability to pivot and transform in response to unforeseen conditions.
Scenario-Based Foresight: Utilize scenario planning to manage anxiety and to broaden the range of plausible outcomes considered.
Ethical, Inclusive Leadership: Recognize the human factors—emotions, biases, cultural norms—without which even the best technical solutions can falter.
Collective Intelligence: Encourage cross-functional and cross-sector collaborations to tap into diversified knowledge and resources.
Embrace Innovation: Recognize that in times of chaos, proactive innovation can be a strategic necessity rather than a luxury.
Conclusion
The notion that Cascio presents, in his paper “The Age of Chaos” provides a powerful lens through which to examine the convergence of multi-layered, interlocking crises. By introducing the BANI he offers a more nuanced vocabulary for diagnosing and addressing the realities we face. For those in risk management seeking to break free from legacy approaches, the insights emphasize agility, foresight, collaboration, and ethical leadership as cornerstones of thriving in a chaotic world.
The Age of Chaos, then, is not purely a dystopian warning. It is also a call to cultivate new competencies and mindsets. Whether it’s building adaptive capacity within organizations, fostering trust through transparent leadership, or collaborating across boundaries to anticipate cascading risks, the vision challenges us to reimagine how we approach uncertainty. By doing so, we can align risk management practices more closely with the messy, complex, and rapidly changing realities of our time - and, ultimately, harness chaos as a catalyst for transformation rather than a force of unraveling.
www.uvidi.ca